Gaoyuan qixiang (Aug 2022)

Research on the Nowcasting Method of Solar Energy Resources Base on FY-4A Ground Radiation Products

  • Dong YE,
  • Jinqiu LIANG,
  • Yanbo SHEN,
  • Chuanhui WANG,
  • Rui CHANG

DOI
https://doi.org/10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2021.00110
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 41, no. 4
pp. 1030 – 1040

Abstract

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Based on the ground incident radiation data of FY-4A and the radiation data of ground weather station, the nowcasting method based on mean generation function is used to obtain the forecast radiation, as well as its rolling correction.Taking Taiyuan station in Shanxi Province as an example, the experiment in 2019 shows that the high spatial-temporal resolution radiation related products provided by the new generation geostationary meteorological satellite FY-4A can provide relatively reliable initial conditions for nowcasting prediction; The nowcasting forecast based on satellite radiation products captures the impact of weather changes, and the revised nowcasting forecast radiation has been effectively improved; In sunny days, the maximum deviation of nowcasting forecast global radiation is improved from about 120 W·m-2 before correction to about 40 W·m-2 after correction.In cloudy days, the average absolute error decreases to 14 W·m-2.In cloudy days, the average absolute error decreases to 56 W·m-2.According to the comprehensive statistical analysis of 16 prediction time steps without considering temporal variation, the corrected nowcasting global radiation and observed global radiation are coincided very well at each prediction time step, the relative error decreased from 44.7%~66.4% to 21.3%~54.3%, and the RMSE decreased from 166.4~198.8 W·m-2 to 132.2~189.9 W·m-2; From the comprehensive statistical analysis of the whole year, the revised correlation coefficient is generally higher than that before the revision, increased from 0.77~0.84 to 0.79~0.88, only slightly decreased at 15 hour, the RMSE decreased from 162.7~197.1 W·m-2 to 129.3~180.9 W·m-2, and the average absolute relative error decreased from 46.0%~76.8% to 24.0%~46.5%.This method can be used for nowcasting prediction of the whole disk at any time.

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