Predicting Recurrence after a First Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism: Retrospective Validation of the DAMOVES Score

Abstract

Unprovoked venous thromboembolism is associated with a 5 to 27% annual risk of recurrence after discontinuation of anticoagulation, and indefinite anticoagulation is recommended if the bleeding risk is low to moderate. However, in one-third of patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism, the risk of recurrence is so low (<5% per year) that anticoagulant therapy >3–6 months may not be necessary. Several prediction rules were derived to identify patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism who have a low recurrence risk. In 2016, we presented our results of the original DAMOVES, a nomogram for prediction of recurrence in an individual patient with unprovoked venous thromboembolism. The aim of this study was to externally validate this nomogram in patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism.

Keywords

• decision support technique
• recurrence
• venous thromboembolism