Information Systems of Forecasting Incidence Rates of Dengue Fever Disease Using Multivariate Fuzzy Time Series

Abstract

Demak Regency is one of the regions in Central Java Province with a low incidence of Dengue Fever compared to other cities and districts. Even so, DHF control needs to be done to minimize the occurrence of dengue fever, because DHF is a fairly dangerous disease. One form of controlling the number of DHF events that is widely used is using forecasting models, one of them is using Fuzzy Time Series. The Multivariate Fuzzy Time Series (MFTS) model is a development of the Fuzzy Time Series model that can be used to forecast using time series data by using more than one variable for forecasting, compared to the Fuzzy Time Series method that usually using only one variable. Based on the research results obtained, the MFTS model has a fairly accurate MAPE value, wherein the best MAPE was at 3 years scenario with MAPE 10,728%.