An Improved Failure Risk Assessment Method for Bilge System of the Large Luxury Cruise Ship under Fire Accident Conditions

Abstract

This paper develops an improved failure risk assessment method and discusses the risk control measures for a large luxury cruise ship’s bilge system under fire accident conditions. The proposed method incorporates an expert weight calculation model and a risk coefficient calculation model. The expert weight calculation model considers the differences in experts’ expertise levels (i.e., qualification level, decision-making capacity, and decision-making preference). Further, the method integrates the evaluations resulting from fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and extended fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) of different experts. The risk coefficient (RC) calculation model utilizes a three-dimensional continuous matrix, serving to determine the risk factors’ ratings. The influences of the expert weight and RC calculation models on the proposed method’s performance are studied through a sensitivity analysis. The work demonstrates that the proposed method minimizes the issues encountered when using conventional methods for determining risk ratings. Finally, the results of an empirical study comprising ten experts evaluating the VISTA cruise ship’s bilge system prove the applicability of the proposed method and offer practical design guidelines to meet the regulations for Safe Return to Port (SRtP).

Keywords

• large luxury cruise ship
• bilge system
• failure risk assessment
• expert weight calculation model
• risk coefficient calculation model
• safe return to port (SRtP)