The Effect of the COVID-19 Vaccine on Daily Cases and Deaths Based on Global Vaccine Data

Zhiwei Li; Xiangtong Liu; Mengyang Liu; Zhiyuan Wu; Yue Liu; Weiming Li; Mengmeng Liu; Xiaonan Wang; Bo Gao; Yanxia Luo; Xia Li; Lixin Tao; Wei Wang; Xiuhua Guo

doi:10.3390/vaccines9111328

Vaccines (Nov 2021)

The Effect of the COVID-19 Vaccine on Daily Cases and Deaths Based on Global Vaccine Data

Zhiwei Li,
Xiangtong Liu,
Mengyang Liu,
Zhiyuan Wu,
Yue Liu,
Weiming Li,
Mengmeng Liu,
Xiaonan Wang,
Bo Gao,
Yanxia Luo,
Xia Li,
Lixin Tao,
Wei Wang,
Xiuhua Guo

Affiliations

Zhiwei Li: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Xiangtong Liu: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Mengyang Liu: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Zhiyuan Wu: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Yue Liu: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Weiming Li: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Mengmeng Liu: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Xiaonan Wang: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Bo Gao: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Yanxia Luo: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Xia Li: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC 3086, Australia
Lixin Tao: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China
Wei Wang: Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100071, China
Xiuhua Guo: Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, 10 Xi-Tou-Tiao, You-An-Men Street, Fengtai District, Beijing 100069, China

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9111328
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 9, no. 11
p. 1328

Abstract

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a global pandemic, has caused over 216 million cases and 4.50 million deaths as of 30 August 2021. Vaccines can be regarded as one of the most powerful weapons to eliminate the pandemic, but the impact of vaccines on daily COVID-19 cases and deaths by country is unclear. This study aimed to investigate the correlation between vaccines and daily newly confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in each country worldwide. Methods: Daily data on firstly vaccinated people, fully vaccinated people, new cases and new deaths of COVID-19 were collected from 187 countries. First, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) to analyze the association between daily vaccinated people and daily new cases and deaths of COVID-19. Second, a random effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate the global pooled results. Results: In total, 187 countries and regions were included in the study. During the study period, 1,011,918,763 doses of vaccine were administered, 540,623,907 people received at least one dose of vaccine, and 230,501,824 people received two doses. For the relationship between vaccination and daily increasing cases of COVID-19, the results showed that daily increasing cases of COVID-19 would be reduced by 24.43% [95% CI: 18.89, 29.59] and 7.50% [95% CI: 6.18, 8.80] with 10,000 fully vaccinated people per day and at least one dose of vaccine, respectively. Daily increasing deaths of COVID-19 would be reduced by 13.32% [95% CI: 3.81, 21.89] and 2.02% [95% CI: 0.18, 4.16] with 10,000 fully vaccinated people per day and at least one dose of vaccine, respectively. Conclusions: These findings showed that vaccination can effectively reduce the new cases and deaths of COVID-19, but vaccines are not distributed fairly worldwide. There is an urgent need to accelerate the speed of vaccination and promote its fair distribution across countries.

Published in Vaccines

ISSN: 2076-393X (Online)
Publisher: MDPI AG
Country of publisher: Switzerland
LCC subjects: Medicine
Website: http://www.mdpi.com/journal/vaccines

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