Quantitative analysis of human-water system coevolution incorporating community perceptions: A case study of Wuhan City, China

Abstract

Study region: Wuhan, China Study focus: In the context of intensifying human-water interactions under rapid urbanization, community perception has been demonstrated to significantly influence the coevolution trajectories of human-water system. This study employed a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate the human-water system coevolution processes at an urban scale. We incorporated the community sensitivity variable as one of the state variables within the SD model to investigate how community perceptions influence human decision-making and subsequently, the coevolution trajectories of the human-water system. Using Wuhan, a megacity, as a case study, we simulated the coevolution trajectories of the human-water system from 2001 to 2020 and predicted potential development trends across three scenarios for 2021–2050. Additionally, we examined the impact of community sensitivity on key variables to ascertain which policy actions could more significantly affect the coevolution of the human-water system. New hydrological insights for the region: The SD model, when integrated with community sensitivity, effectively simulates the coevolution of the human-water system and reflects the role of community perceptions. Between 2001 and 2020, urban water storage remained stable, while the evolution of water environment condition, domestic water use, and community sensitivity exhibited a U-shaped trend with distinct turning points. Productive water use consistently declined over this period, whereas the population size showed an S-shaped pattern, reflecting shifting demographic dynamics. Trends in each variable persisted across future scenarios, differing only in magnitude. Once economic development reaches a certain threshold, community sensitivity is anticipated to aid in restoring the water environment and halting its degradation. Implementing measures to control productive water use and improve the water environment condition could significantly contribute to the sustainable development of Wuhan City.

Keywords

• Human-water system
• Community sensitivity
• System dynamics model
• Coevolution
• Wuhan City