Association between Long-Term Second Malignancy Risk and Radiation: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Entire Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database (1973-2014)

Abstract

Purpose: Second malignancies (SMs) after radiation therapy are rare but serious sequelae of treatment. This study investigates whether radiation therapy use is associated with changes in baseline SM risk. Methods and Materials: We extracted all patients with cancer, with or without SM, in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1973 to 2014. Cumulative incidence of SM for patients stratified by radiation therapy status was calculated using a competing risk model, both for the entire cohort and for subgroups based on the primary tumor's anatomic location. Results: We identified 2,872,063 patients with cancer, including 761,289 patients who received radiation therapy and 2,110,774 who did not. The SM rate at 20 years for patients receiving radiation therapy versus no radiation therapy was 21.4% versus 18.8%. The relative risk for SM associated with radiation therapy for the overall group was 1.138 at 20 years. The relative risks for SM associated with radiation therapy to malignancies arising from central nervous system and orbits, head and neck, thorax, abdomen, and pelvis at 20 years were 0.704, 1.011, 0.559, 0.646, and 1.106 for men and 0.792, 1.298, 1.265, 0.780, and 0.988 for women, respectively. Conclusions: The association between SM and radiation therapy varies with both sex and disease anatomic location, with the largest increase in SM seen in females irradiated to the head and neck region. Overall, the absolute change in SM rates associated with radiation therapy remains small, with differences in various clinical contexts.