Risk Coupling Evaluation of Social Stability of Major Engineering Based on N-K Model

Abstract

In view of the sociality, complexity, and uncertainty of major engineering projects, social stability poses many problems for social contradictions and conflicts in the whole life cycle of the project. This study aimed to investigate the approach of the coupling evaluation method to analyze the coupling influence of social stability risk factors of major projects. First, the potential risk factors of internal and external social stability risk of major projects were abstracted based on literature research and case analysis, and a bow-tie model and a coupling evaluation index system were constructed. Then, a N-K model of social stability risk coupling evaluation of major projects was constructed based on complex network, and the probability and risk value of the coupling of different risk factors were calculated. The studies showed that the coupling ways of social stability risk factors of major projects influence the social stability risk. Multi-factor risk coupling will increase the probability of social stability risk of major projects. The study of this paper provides a theoretical basis for the social stability risk management decision-making of major projects and promotes the sustainable development of major projects.

Keywords

• major projects
• social stability risk
• risk factors
• risk coupling evaluation