پژوهشهای اقتصادی (Jan 2008)
The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Main Variables of Agricultural Sector in Iran
Abstract
Monetary and fiscal policies are the main macroeconomic instruments, so the most important step in programming for national development is to know how they affect economic variables. On the other side, agricultural sector is the main sector in economic growth and development and a strategic sector for supplying food for growing population, so this sector has a great importance in development programs. In this research, the effect of monetary and fiscal policies on the major factors of agricultural sector in Iran i.e. added value, price, and export are investigated by using Vector Auto-regressive Model (VAR). Results show that monetary and fiscal policies have positive effect on added value, price and export in agricultural sector but negative effect on investment in this sector. Furthermore, short-run effect of monetary policies on added value, export and investment is more than that of fiscal policies but long-run effect of fiscal policies on the added value, export and investment in agricultural sector is more than that of monetary policies. Furthermore, a one-S.D. liquidity innovation has a positive decreasing effect on the added value and price in agriculture sector but its effect on investment is positive in the first year and will be nearly consistent in the next years. In addition to that the effect on the export is positive in the first year and negative in the next years. Each government budget innovation has a positive effect on added value, export and price in agriculture sector but its effect on investment is positive in the first year and negative in the next years.
