Temporal change of extreme precipitation intensity–duration–frequency relationships in Thailand

Abstract

Due to climate change, many research studies have derived the updated extreme precipitation intensity–duration–frequency relationship (IDF curve) from forecasted sub-hourly rainfall intensity time series, which is one of the most important tools for the planning and designing of hydraulic infrastructures. In this study, the IDF curves (1990–2016) of the six regions and procedures are used in accordance with those of the Royal Irrigation Department (RID)’s study (1950–1988). Each set of IDF relationships consists of 81 intensity values which are the combination of nine durations and nine return periods. The intensity ratios of this study and RID are compared. A greater-than-1 ratio indicates extreme intensity increment from the past to the present. Considering 81 ratios for each region, the number of greater-than-1 ratios for the North, Northeast, Central, East, West, and South regions are 8, 2, 31, 34, 6, and 7, respectively. These ratio numbers are far below 81 which means that the majority of extreme rainfall intensities do not increase from the past to the present. The study found that using accurate historical sub-hourly rainfall time series to create a set of IDF curves would be more reliable than using forecasted rainfall modeling. HIGHLIGHTS Using accurate historical sub-hourly rainfall time series to create a set of IDF curves would be more reliable than using forecasted rainfall modeling.; The future period intensities from eight global climate models are closer to the base period intensities than the ones from a global climate model.; The majority of recent and past IDF curves did not increase as expected.;

Keywords

• extreme precipitation intensity
• idf relationship
• temporal change
• thailand