Mathematical model of the technology of transit cargo flows’ management within the international transport corridor «South – West»

Abstract

Problem. The priority of Ukraine is to build a national network of international transport corridors. The growing demand for East-West transport services and the intensive development of neighboring countries' transport and communication systems are a signal to Ukraine about the need to ensure effective international cooperation on Ukraine's integration into the Europe-Asia transport system. Goal. The goal is development of the mathe-matical model of the cargo flow management tech-nology of ITC "South - West", based on the planning effect of the “first and last mile”. Methodology. The analytical methods of research on the development and application of approach to choosing the rational technology were used. A mathematical model of car-go flow management technology was developed. Us-ing a neural network apparatus to predict the volume of cargo flow іs suggested. Results. The structure of cargo delivery technological process according to alternative existing variant from Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf countries to European countries is presented, namely, according to the ITC "South - West". An integrated metric is selected as the Goal Function, allowing to consider shipping and delivery time options. Originality. The developed mathematical model of cargo flow management technology at the route "South-West" will allow to take into account possible delays at the "first and last mile" with the probability of financial risks. Practical value. The use of the proposed approach provides an opportunity to ensure the cargo delivery operator at the route with informational support for making sound management decisions regarding the duration of the “first and last mile” technological operations. In addition, it will allow to measure the likelihood of occurrence and the magnitude of financial risks that lead to increased shipping costs.

Keywords

• cargo flow
• container
• forecast
• neural network
• risk
• ”first and miles”
• international transport corridor «south- west»