The global mean sea level rise predicted by its causative budget components during 2018 – 2050

Abstract

This study establishes a predictive empirical model, the first of its kind, which is innately a cause-and-effect representation of the observed global mean sea level over time. The model uses the trends of its observed budget components, including the temporal variations in mass of glaciers, Greenland, Antarctic ice sheets, terrestrial water storage, steric effect, and astronomical forcings of luni-solar origin, as independent variables in representing global mean sea level anomalies, namely, the dependent variable. The model parameters are estimated using monthly globally averaged satellite altimetry measurements and the yearly rates of the budget components during 1993–2018 as a priori information. Prospective monthly global mean sea level anomalies are then quantified and tabulated together with their root mean square error of prediction at 5% significance level for the period 2018–2050.

Keywords

• Climate change
• global mean sea level budget
• luni-solar forcing
• prediction of global mean sea level rise