Evaluation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Changes Using the Land Change Modeler

Abstract

In order to make decisions for regional planning and achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to quantify land use and land cover changes. In this study, the land use and land cover maps of the Zayandehrood Dam watershed were prepared for the period of 1991 to 2021, using Landsat satellite images, and the changes that occurred in this period were revealed. Using the land change modeler (LCM), land use and land cover and their future changes for 2051 were modeled and predicted. The results showed that in the period between 1991 and 2021, the coverage of poor rangelands with 51,871 hectares of change had the largest decreasing trend, and the agricultural class had the largest increasing trend with 71,478 hectares of change. The largest decline in the period from 2021 to 2051 is related in the coverage of the fair rangelands class with 66192 hectares, and the agricultural class potentially has the largest increasing trend with 70328 hectares of change. The findings of this research will be useful for policymakers and planners. They can use the findings of this study for spatial planning in the region, managing the process of land use and land cover changes for sustainable development.

Keywords

• land use/land cover change
• artificial neural network
• remote sensing
• land change modeler
• zayandehrood dam watershed