Improving the Accuracy of Firm Failure Forecasting Using Non-Financial Variables: The Case of Croatian SME

Abstract

Empirical findings based on a bivariate logistic regression model with two SME categories (successful and failed) indicate that by adding non-financial indicators to the model based on financial variables, the accuracy of forecasting increases significantly. Namely, the total classification error decreases by an average of 26.99%, while the AUROC value increases by an average of 7.33%. In the additional model, with three firm categories (successful, sensitive, and failed), the findings reveal that one financial variable (self-financing) and three non-financial variables (orderly settlement of obligations, export, and age) significantly explain the occurrence of the early stage of SME failure.

Keywords

• SME
• firm failure
• non-financial variables