An Adaptive and Parallel Forecasting Strategy for Short-Term Power Load Based on Second Learning of Error Trend

Abstract

Modeling an accurate forecasting model for short-term load is still challenging due to the diverse causes of load changing and lack of information on many of these causes. In this paper, error trend is used to reveal the trend effect caused by unknown load affecting factors and proposed adaptive second learning of error trend (A-SLET) to self-adapt the trend effect. Furthermore, the training set is classified based on balance point temperature and then parallelly trained and tested adaptive forecaster for hot days and adaptive forecaster for cold days with proper data. Combining A-SLET with parallel forecasting and training set classification, Adaptive and Parallel forecasting strategy based on Second Learning of Error Trend (AP-SLET) is proposed. The work studied two distinct load patterns, one in the USA and the other in Australia. Considering the yearly forecasting horizon, MAPE of the adaptive and parallel forecasting strategy is 1.87%-4.04% for ME-Maine of New England and 2.81%-4.41% for New South Wales. Compared to the state-of-art forecasting methods, MAPE of the adaptive and parallel forecasting strategy is reduced by 17.03%-33.33%, RMSE and MAE are reduced by 34.05% and 35.38% respectively. The experimental results demonstrate the proposed strategy can transform unknown and unavailable load affecting factors into known forecasting features and then adapt it to improve forecasting performance. The proposed strategy is also forecaster independent and equally applicable to almost all load scenarios regardless of geographical and seasonal differences.

Keywords

• Adaptive and parallel forecasting
• short-term load forecasting
• smart grid, second learning of error trend
• training set classification