Spatial Heterogeneity of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Pulmonary Disease in Shanghai: Insights from a Ten-Year Population-Based Study

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the spatial heterogeneity of nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) in Shanghai. Methods: A population-based retrospective study was conducted using presumptive pulmonary tuberculosis surveillance data of Shanghai between 2010 and 2019. The study described the spatial distribution of NTM-PD notification rates, employing hierarchical Bayesian mapping for high-risk areas and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to identify hot spots and explore associated factors. Results: Of 1652 NTM-PD cases, the most common species was Mycobacterium kansasii complex (MKC) (41.9%), followed by Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) (27.1%) and Mycobacterium abscessus complex (MABC) (16.2%). MKC-PD patients were generally younger males with a higher incidence of pulmonary cavities, while MAC-PD patients were more often farmers or had a history of tuberculosis treatment. MKC-PD hot spots were primarily located in the areas alongside the Huangpu River, while MAC-PD hot spots were mainly in the western agricultural areas. Patients with MKC-PD and MAC-PD exhibited a higher risk of spatial clustering compared to those with MABC-PD. Conclusions: Different types of NTM-PD exhibit distinct patterns of spatial clustering and are associated with various factors. These findings underscore the importance of environmental and host factors in the epidemic of NTM-PD.

Keywords

• Nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease
• Spatial heterogeneity
• Risk factors
• Spatial distribution
• Bayesian disease mapping