Development, validation and visualization of a web-based nomogram for predicting risk of new-onset diabetes after percutaneous coronary intervention

Abstract

Abstract Simple and practical tools for screening high-risk new-onset diabetes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) (NODAP) are urgently needed to improve post-PCI prognosis. We aimed to evaluate the risk factors for NODAP and develop an online prediction tool using conventional variables based on a multicenter database. China evidence-based Chinese medicine database consisted of 249, 987 patients from 4 hospitals in mainland China. Patients ≥ 18 years with implanted coronary stents for acute coronary syndromes and did not have diabetes before PCI were enrolled in this study. According to the occurrence of new-onset diabetes mellitus after PCI, the patients were divided into NODAP and Non-NODAP. After least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and logistic regression, the model features were selected and then the nomogram was developed and plotted. Model performance was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, Hosmer–Lemeshow test and decision curve analysis. The nomogram was also externally validated at a different hospital. Subsequently, we developed an online visualization tool and a corresponding risk stratification system to predict the risk of developing NODAP after PCI based on the model. A total of 2698 patients after PCI (1255 NODAP and 1443 non-NODAP) were included in the final analysis based on the multicenter database. Five predictors were identified after screening: fasting plasma glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, hypertension, family history of diabetes and use of diuretics. And then we developed a web-based nomogram ( https://mr.cscps.com.cn/wscoringtool/index.html ) incorporating the above conventional factors for predicting patients at high risk for NODAP. The nomogram showed good discrimination, calibration and clinical utility and could accurately stratify patients into different NODAP risks. We developed a simple and practical web-based nomogram based on multicenter database to screen for NODAP risk, which can assist clinicians in accurately identifying patients at high risk of NODAP and developing post-PCI management strategies to improved patient prognosis.

Keywords

• Cardiovascular diseases
• Percutaneous coronary intervention
• New-onset diabetes
• Risk factors
• Predictive model