Joint Bayesian Modeling of Velocity Break Points, Noise Characteristics, and Their Uncertainties in GNSS Time Series: Far‐Field Velocity Anomalies Concurrent With Magmatic Activity in Iceland

Abstract

Abstract Estimating the timing of velocity changes (break points) in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) coordinate time series is required for understanding various Earth processes and how they may couple with each other. We jointly estimate break points, noise parameters and their uncertainties in GNSS time series using Bayesian interference. Synthetic data experiments demonstrate that time‐correlated noise can cause spurious estimates of break points for small velocity change and suggest the lower limits of velocity change for reliable estimates. A case study at the Krafla volcanic system shows increased rift‐perpendicular movementof 7.6–9.8 mm/yr, preceding by 23–77 days the 2014 Bárðarbunga rifting episode that occurred ∼120 km to the south (maximum likelihood estimates). These far‐field velocity anomalies occur in the same period as enhanced near‐field seismicity and deformation before the dike intrusion at Bárðarbunga, possibly indicating the coupling between the two volcanic systems through a deep partial melt zone.