علوم و فنون نظامی (May 2017)
Investigating the effective parameters in enemy's surprise on the scene of the future battles
Abstract
Nowadays, prospective military organizations are expected to look at the future, providing the necessary platform for the smart design and construction of the future battle scene, because the smartest way is to prepare for unpredictable things. Of course, it must be prepared by "preparing" to adapt to what is likely to happen, to provide conditions for the events of the future battle scene as they are desirable. Prospective military organizations want to know what future battle scenes can take place (possible), what more likely combat scenes will be formed (probability), and what battle scenes should be set up (preferred). These organizations are trying to create new images of the future; images of possible discoveries and perspectives, the results of systematic reviews of possible future, and high-quality evaluations of the future. The key to prevent of being surprised and surprise the enemy on the scene of the future battle lies in the context of the "paradigm”. The military paradigms governing the minds of the commanders determine the behavior and direction of the development of their capabilities in the future. In this paper, the concepts of effective components in how the future is shaped, such as weak signs of change, surprises, trends, propulsion and paradigms were introduced and methods of observation, identification and analysis of these components were mentioned. Finally, on the basis of these concepts and methods, in order to prevent of being surprised and surprise the enemy on the scene of the future battle, the implementation of three sections, the Center for the Theory and Production of Exquisite Islamic Science, the Observatory for Science and Technology, and the Strategic Research Center for the Drawing of the Future Battle Scene, were proposed in a coherent and integrated system and in the form of a "rapid strategic warning" system.
