Visualization of optimized solution space using a simulation system for the development of local forest management planning

Abstract

A simulation system, based on pre-existing models, was used to investigate and visualize the solution space for optimizing forest management planning. The simulation system used existing forestry profits estimation models to test the outcomes of different crop rotations by previous studies. The simulation enabled us to predict forestry profits and labor requirements under different forestry management plans, and to examine the consequences for harvesting strategies. A part of the Kyushu region was selected as the study site, because the basic sub-models for predicting timber production, labor requirements and forestry profits were developed in the area. This study has investigated and visualized the solution space optimized for forest economics using various combinations of short and long rotation silvicultural practices implemented at a local scale. Based on the simulations, optimization of the plans was formulated under the forestry scale of compartment and total level. Visualizing the 3-dimensional optimized solution space by using a simulation system is useful for decision-makers involved with local forest management planning. The differences of forestry profits, labor requirements and timber volume depending on the intensity of silvicultural practices were analyzed. The simulation system is also useful for sustainable forest management under the Japanese forestry planning system.

Keywords

• economics
• labor quantity
• optimization
• solution space
• timber production