On Discrete Poisson–Mirra Distribution: Regression, INAR(1) Process and Applications

Abstract

Several pieces of research have spotlighted the importance of count data modelling and its applications in real-world phenomena. In light of this, a novel two-parameter compound-Poisson distribution is developed in this paper. Its mathematical functionalities are investigated. The two unknown parameters are estimated using both maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. We also offer a parametric regression model for the count datasets based on the proposed distribution. Furthermore, the first-order integer-valued autoregressive process, or INAR(1) process, is also used to demonstrate the utility of the suggested distribution in time series analysis. The unknown parameters of the proposed INAR(1) model are estimated using the conditional maximum likelihood, conditional least squares, and Yule–Walker techniques. Simulation studies for the suggested distribution and the INAR(1) model based on this innovative distribution are also undertaken as an assessment of the long-term performance of the estimators. Finally, we utilized three real datasets to depict the new model’s real-world applicability.

Keywords

• compounding
• over-dispersion
• Bayesian estimation
• count time series
• COVID-19 data
• earthquake data