Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts by the 2.5 km CReSS Model in Taiwan: Examples and Role of Topography

Abstract

In this study, 24 h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) in Taiwan at the ranges of day 1 (0–24 h), day 2 (24–48 h), and day 3 (48–72 h) by a cloud-resolving model are examined using categorical statistics, targeted mainly for the most-rainy 24 h from 10 typhoon cases between 2010 and 2015, following two earlier studies that evaluated the overall performance for all the typhoons that hit Taiwan from 2010 to 2012 and through 2015. In the selected examples with a peak amount of 322 to 1110 mm, the QPFs by the model (with a grid size of 2.5 km) are shown to be of very high quality for two typhoons (Soulik and Soudelor), and fairly good quality for three cases (Fanapi, Megi, and Fung-Wong) up to day 3 and for four others (Saola, Kong-Rey, Nanmadol, and Tembin) within day 2, respectively. The results are more variable for the one remaining case of Matmo, also impressive on day 1 but degraded at longer ranges. Overall, the quality of the QPFs ranges from excellent to satisfactory for all the typhoons studied as the threat score can achieve 0.2 at thresholds fairly close to the observed peak amount in some typhoons, or at least about half of it in most others. Since the majority of the typhoons produced the greatest rainfall amounts over the mountains in Taiwan due to the topographic effect, in agreement with many previous studies, the QPF skills by the model, often extending into high thresholds, as demonstrated, suggest that heavy rainfall from typhoons in Taiwan is generally of high predictability if and when the model has an adequate resolution.

Keywords

• quantitative precipitation forecast
• typhoon
• rainfall
• cloud-resolving model
• categorical skill scores
• topography