Journal of Perspectives in Management (Dec 2023)
Effect of exchange rate fluctuation on external reserve in Nigeria
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and external reserves in Nigeria, focusing on the inflation rate, interest rate, and public debt as independent variables. It aims to analyze how these factors collectively influence external reserve management, with specific objectives involving the impact of the inflation rate, the influence of interest rate, and the effects of public debt. Using a causal research design and time series data from 2001 to 2021, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, Eviews 12 facilitates analysis. using ordinary least square Method, Descriptive statistics, regression analysis, and diagnostic tests like the Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test and Heteroscedasticity Test provide insights into external reserves, inflation rate, interest rate, and public debt characteristics. Findings reveal a negative relationship between external reserves and the independent variables, emphasizing the roles of inflation rate, interest rate, and public debt. Regression analysis confirms statistical significance, except for public debt. The R2 value of 0.542050 suggests that 54% of external reserve changes are explained by the selected variables. Diagnostic tests confirm model reliability, holding implications for policymakers and stakeholders in understanding factors influencing external reserve management. In conclusion, the study underscores the critical importance of sound macroeconomic policies in managing Nigeria's external reserves. Negative relationships observed emphasize the need for strategic interventions. Recommendations include maintaining price stability, optimizing interest rate policies, practicing prudent debt management, diversifying funding sources, serving as a guide for policymakers to navigate economic challenges, and enhancing Nigeria's external reserves' resilience.
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