The social risk forecast indicator of the road traffic accidents in the territory of Khabarovsk and the Khabarovskiy krai

Abstract

The paper analyzes the road traffic safety in the territory of Khabarovsk in 2011-2020 according to the following indicators: the severity of the accidents, the severity of the consequences, the social risk, the forecast indicator of the social risk in the city of Khabarovsk by 2024. The analysis is based on the exponential smoothing method using the statistical data of 2011-2020. The forecast indicator of the social risk is compared to the value established by the Road Safety Strategy in the Russian Federation for 2018 - 2024, as a target by 2024. An assessment of achieving the mortality rate reduction in the Khabarovskiy krai is also given. The impact of the pandemic consequences and the socio-economic situation on reducing the road accidents mortality are examined. The objective data on the costs increasing to support the population and business being evaluated, the target values are set by the national project in 2020 and the subsequent years. For the analysis, the empirical methods are used, such as: examining the results of the previous activities; the expert assessments; the methods of studying an object in time: retrospective, forecasting. The socio-economic factors are considered the most susceptible to reduce the traffic accidents mortality.