Identification of climate induced optimal rice yield and vulnerable districts rankings of the Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract

Abstract The study attracted to insinuate the inhabitant anomalies of the crop yield in the districts of the Punjab where climate variation, inputs utilization, and district exponents are indispensable factors. Impact evaluation of sowing and harvesting dates for rice yield has been analyzed. Suitable sowing and harvesting dates and potential districts for the crop are proposed. Data consisting of 13,617 observations of more than 90 factors encompassing valuable dimensions of the growth of the crops collected through comprehensive surveys conducted by the Agriculture Department of Punjab are formulated to incorporate in this study. The results establish the significant negative repercussions of climate variability while the impacts vary in the districts. The crop yield deteriorates considerably by delaying the sowing and harvesting times. Districts climate-induced vulnerability ranking revealed Layyah, Jhelum, Mianwali, Khanewal and Chinniot, the most vulnerable while Kasur, Gujrat, Mandi Bhauddin, Nankana Sahib and Hafizabad, the least vulnerable districts. Spatial mapping explains the geographical pattern of vulnerabilities and yield/monetary losses. The study ranks districts using climate-induced yield and monetary loss (222.30 thousand metric tons of rice which are equal to 27.79 billion PKR climatic losses in single rice season) and recommends: the formation of district policy to abate the adverse climate impact, utilization of suitable climate variation by adhering proper sowing and harvesting times, setting the prioritized districts facing climate-induced losses for urgent attention and preferable districts for rice crop.