Analysis of sensitivity of a company's financial sustainability to random factors

Abstract

In this article the problem of influence of accidental changes of financial indicators of enterprise activity (equity, long-term/short-term borrowed capital, reserves and costs, etc.) caused by uncertainty of market conditions on values of indicators of financial stability is considered. The study is conducted on the basis of the assumption that the studied financial indicators of the enterprise are random values with a normal law of distribution. To estimate the distribution parameters of these random values, statistical data on the values of the financial indicators of the enterprise for previous years are used. Following estimates of probabilities of financial stability levels were built: absolute stability, normal stability, unstable state and crisis financial state. With the help of statistical modeling, numerical experiments were conducted in order to determine the level of financial condition and conclusions were formulated on the impact on the financial condition of the enterprise of the parameters of the distribution of probabilities of random variables - indicators of the financial and economic activity of the enterprise.