Shift of the storm surge season in Europe due to climate variability

Abstract

Abstract Along the European coasts, changes in the timing of the storm surge season are analyzed. Using 10 long-term tide gauges located in western Europe, a consistent spatio-temporal shift emerged in the storm surge season between 1950 and 2000. Temporal shifts are positive (later events) in the North, negative (earlier events) in the South. Extreme surge events occurred about 4 days/decade later in northern Europe, and 5 days/decade earlier in southern Europe. Such a tendency is similar to the one already reported for European river floods between 1960 and 2010. In northern Europe, extreme surges are known to occur during the positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase (NAO+). Identified spatio-temporal shifts likely trace that NAO+ storms tend to occur later between 1950 and 2000. A new index measuring the timing of the NAO+ and NAO− persistent situations is shown to help capture this spatial distribution in the timing of the storm surge seasons.