Forecasting the Coffee Consumption Demand in Vietnam Based on Grey Forecasting Model

Abstract

Forecasting the domestic coffee consumption demand is important for policy planning and making the right decisions. Thus, in this study, we try to find out the most suitable model among three proposed models (GM (1,1), DGM (1,1) and Grey Verhulst model (GVM)) for predicting the amount of domestic coffee consumption in Vietnam in the future. Yearly data of coffee consumption from 2010–2020 are used in this research. The experimental results indicated that the GM (1,1) is the most accurate model selected in this study with the lowest average value of [Formula: see text]%. So, the GM (1,1) model is strongly suggested in the analysis of coffee consumption demand in Vietnam. Finding the right tool will help managers make right decisions easily for sustainable development of the coffee industry in Vietnam in the future.

Keywords

• GM (1,1)
• DGM (1,1)
• Grey Verhulst model
• coffee consumption demand
• Vietnam