Spatial Estimation of Regional Economic Growth Heterogeneity During 2014‒2021

Abstract

Introduction. The aggravation of socio-economic heterogeneity among Russian regions is one of the main challenges for sustainable development of the country. The main task of spatial policy is to ensure advanced rates of development of geostrategic and lagging behind territories as well as increasing competitiveness of regional economies. However, the events of the past decade substantially adjusted plans on regional economic growth enhancement. The aim of the study is to estimate spatial economic growth heterogeneity and interdependence of bordering entities of Russia over 2013‒2021. Materials and Methods. The main research method is Moran’s methodology for assessing local and global indices characterizing the inter-regional relation and A. Anselin’s approach for local indices of spatial autocorrelation and spatial clusters identification. The research uses regional data on real GRP per capita growth rates for 85 Russian regions for five annual intervals. Results. The results confirmed that geopolitical tensions significantly enhance the regional economic growth heterogeneity. The most developed regions, including main hydrocarbon producers, are found being most exposed to external economic shocks, which reduced their spatial interrelation. Southern and eastern regions demonstrated an upward growth trend. The COVID-19 pandemic shaped the appearance of western and eastern clusters. Regional economies demonstrated the decreasing heterogeneity through enhancing the economic growth rates in the post-crises period. Coincidently, we document that economic development of the regions influences the growth in bordering entities. Discussion and Conclusion. The research allows defining three stages of regional economic growth rates heterogeneity during 2013‒2021. The derived conclusions are recommended for actualizing state policy in reducing regional heterogeneity and strengthening the national economic space.

Keywords

• spatial heterogeneity
• economic growth
• moran’s index
• anselin matrix
• russian regions