The Impacts of Climate and Human Activities on Grassland Productivity Variation in China

Abstract

Grassland degradation is widespread and increasing globally, which is closely related to the sustainable development of the ecosystems and the well-being of human life in pastoral areas. Quantifying the factors influencing grassland ecosystems, specifically climate change and human activities, is of great significance for grassland restoration. However, due to the unpredictability of human activities, further research is still needed to distinguish and identify the factors affecting grasslands. In this study, we examined the changes in the gross primary productivity (GPP) of grassland cover in 10 provinces (autonomous regions) of China from 2000 to 2018 and selected three representative climate factors (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation) and six factors covering socioeconomic (primary industry production and population), animal husbandry (large livestock and sheep populations), and national policies (grazing areas, rodent, and pest control) to characterize human activities; then, we quantified the effects and contribution of climate and human factors using three analysis methods (partial correlation analysis, geographical and temporal weighted regression model, and Lindeman Merenda Gold method). The results indicated that the GPP of grassland presented an obvious uptrend (4.75 g C m−2 yr−1, p < 0.05). Among the nine factors, sheep, precipitation, and temperature were the primary factors affecting grassland dynamics. Additionally, the GPP dynamics of grassland were mainly dominated by human activities in seven provinces (autonomous regions). These findings provide decision support for protecting grassland ecosystems and implementing ecological restoration policies in China.

Keywords

• grassland
• gross primary productivity
• socialeconomic index
• climate factors
• geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR)