Modeling the Causes of Deferring Repayments in Qarz Al-Hasaneh Mehr Bank (QMB) of Iran

Abstract

This paper examines and models the causes of deferring repayments in Qarz Al-Hasaneh Mehr Bank (QMB) of Iran. In the model, the effects of explanatory variables, including “kind of caught guaranty from customers”, “value of caught guaranty”, “kind of facilities”, “duration of repayment” and “amount of facilities”, on dependent variable “ deferring repayment of facilities” are investigated. In this research, the statistical population consists of customers of QMB branches in Tehran provinces during 2007-2011, which was selected by cluster sampling. For modeling causes of deferring repayments, both logistic regression and discrimination analysis were used and data was analyzed with SPSS software. According to the results of research, both models were significant, but logistic regression model was more robust in predicting probability of deferring repayment of granted facilities, so that, it predicted 84.5% of deferred facilities and 54% of repaid facilities, correctly. In addition, “the kind of guaranty” (cheque and payroll deduction authorization) and “kind of facilities” have negative and positive impact on deferring repayments, respectively.

Keywords

• deferred repayments
• logistic regression
• discrimination analysis
• qarz al-hasaneh mehr bank (qmb) of iran