An assessment of the wind power dynamics in the European coastal environment

Abstract

The objective of the proposed work is to assess the possible wind power dynamics along the European coastal environment in the context of the very predictable future development of the offshore wind energy extraction. From this perspective, 15 reference points have been selected in the Baltic, Mediterranean and Black seas, representing 5 representative locations for each sea, respectively. The proposed analysis is based on the wind fields provided by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the future time period 2021-2050. These data are processed and analysed considering the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. In the first RCP scenario (4.5), an enhancement of the greenhouse gas emissions until 2040 is considered followed afterwards by a decline. On the other hand, the second scenario assumes that the greenhouse gas emissions enhancement will continue during the entire 21st century and after. The first scenario is considered as the most realistic approach, while the second as the most pessimistic. Furthermore, in order to complete the picture an analysis of the historical wind data coming from the same RCM for the past 30-year period 1976-2005 is also carried out. In this way, a more comprehensive image of the wind power dynamics in the some relevant locations from the European coastal environment is provided. In order to enlarge the perspective, the analysis of the historical data is also extended for some locations in the North Sea, where wind farms already operate. The results indicate a slight enhancement of the average wind power in most of the locations considered. This enhancement appears to be stronger for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. On the other hand, the maximum wind power is expected to have much higher peaks for RCP8.5 and this especially concerns the western side of the Black Sea. The work is still on going and the analysis will be extended in both space and time covering more coastal locations and the time period until the end of the 21 st century.