APPROACHES FOR PREDICTING THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INVASIVE MOSQUITOE SPECIES AEDES ALBOPICTUS (SKUSE, 1895) ON THE TERRITORY OF THE SOUTH EUROPEAN PART OF RUSSIA

Abstract

In the south of the European part of Russia, Aedes albopictus, one of the main vector of a number of viral fevers in the world, was first recorded in 2011. Until 2016, its habitat was limited to the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus. At the moment, Ae. albopictus got over through the large Caucasian ridge. In 2018 we found that the modern border of its distribution passes through the neighborhood of such cities as Novorossiysk, Krasnodar, Belorechensk, and Maykop. However, we assume a possibility of further expansion of the area of Ae. albopictus deep into the East European Plain. We focused on prediction of distribution of the species proceeding from fitness of the habitat in the current and future climatic conditions. As the major limiting factors we have chosen the average annual temperatures, average winter temperatures, and average annual amount of precipitation. Thus, our results can help understand mechanisms of penetration Ae. albopictus in the offered zone and improve programs of monitoring.

Keywords

• Aedes albopictus
• invasion
• the Black Sea coast of the Caucasus
• area
• dissemination model