Forecast of natural gas supply and demand in China under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”

Abstract

As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network—LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China's natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China's primary energy consumption will peak (59.4×108 tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak (103.4×108 t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak (6100×108 m3) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China's peak natural gas production is about (2800–3400)×108 m3, including (2100–2300)×108 m3 conventional gas (including tight gas), (600–1050)×108 m3 shale gas, and (150–220)×108 m3 coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.

Keywords

• carbon peak and carbon neutrality
• energy mix
• carbon emissions
• natural gas consumption
• natural gas production
• new energy system