Optimal COVID-19 infection spread under low temperature, dry air, and low UV radiation

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is spreading rapidly throughout the world, causing many deaths and severe economic damage. It is believed that hot and humid conditions do not favor the novel coronavirus, yet this is still under debate due to many uncertainties associated with the COVID-19 data. Here we propose surrogate data tests to examine the preference of this virus to spread under different climate conditions. We find, by mainly studying the relative number of COVID-19 deaths, that the disease is significantly (above the 95% confidence level) more common when the temperature is ∼10 °C, the relative humidity is ∼60%, the specific humidity is ∼5 g kg ^−1 , and the ultraviolet radiation is less than ∼50 kJ m ^−2 (per hour). We also find, but less significantly, that the relative number of COVID-19 deaths is high when the wind is weak and low when the wind is strong. The results are supported based on global and regional data, spanning the time period from January to December 2020. The COVID-19 data includes the daily reported new cases and the daily deaths; for both, the population size is either taken into account or ignored.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• temperature
• humidity
• UV radiation
• wind speed
• surrogate data tests