The Effect of Remote Teleconnection Patterns on Temperature and Precipitation of the Euphrates-Tigris Basin

Abstract

The Euphrates-Tigris Basin is the most important water source in the Middle East. The present study examined the relationship between the precipitation and temperature characteristics of the basin using remote teleconnection patterns on a monthly time scale. The effects of the North Atlantic, Arctic Oscillations, North Sea Caspian Pattern, and Western Mediterranean indices were examined. The relationship between teleconnection patterns and precipitation/temperature was investigated by adopting Spearman’s Correlation test. All of the remote teleconnection patterns had significant effects on the temperature and precipitation characteristics of the basin. However, the North Sea Caspian Pattern significantly affected the temperatures of the entire basin. Similarly, the Western Mediterranean index had a significant effect on the average temperatures for four months (February, April, November, and December) in almost the entire basin. Also, the Western Mediterranean Index corralates positively with the precipitation of the basin in January, while the correlation is negative in October, and November. Especially, the Western Mediterranean Index and the North Sea Caspian Pattern showed one-month and two-month delayed relationships in monthly total precipitation in some months. At the extremes of the index values, relationships often became strong and distinct. The study results may be useful for seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts of the Euphrates-Tigris basin.

Keywords

• teleconnection patterns
• precipitation
• temperature
• euphrates-tigris basin