Changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming

Abstract

Here we present the first empirical evidence for changes in groundwater drought associated with anthropogenic warming in the absence of long-term changes in precipitation. Analysing standardised indices of monthly groundwater levels, precipitation and temperature, using two unique groundwater level data sets from the Chalk aquifer, UK, for the period 1891 to 2015, we show that precipitation deficits are the main control on groundwater drought formation and propagation. However, long-term changes in groundwater drought are shown to be associated with anthropogenic warming over the study period. These include increases in the frequency and intensity of individual groundwater drought months, and increases in the frequency, magnitude and intensity of episodes of groundwater drought, as well as an increasing tendency for both longer episodes of groundwater drought and for an increase in droughts of less than 1 year in duration. We also identify a transition from a coincidence of episodes of groundwater drought with precipitation droughts at the end of the 19th century, to an increasing coincidence with both precipitation droughts and with hot periods in the early 21st century. In the absence of long-term changes in precipitation deficits, we infer that the changing nature of groundwater droughts is due to changes in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with anthropogenic warming. We note that although the water tables are relatively deep at the two study sites, a thick capillary fringe of at least 30 m in the Chalk means that ET should not be limited by precipitation at either site. ET may be supported by groundwater through major episodes of groundwater drought and, hence, long-term changes in ET associated with anthropogenic warming may drive long-term changes in groundwater drought phenomena in the Chalk aquifer. Given the extent of shallow groundwater globally, anthropogenic warming may widely effect changes to groundwater drought characteristics in temperate environments.