Financial Innovation (Jan 2024)

Uncertainty about interest rates and crude oil prices

  • Mahmoud Qadan,
  • Gil Cohen

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00551-w
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 10, no. 1
pp. 1 – 14

Abstract

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Abstract The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note is among the most cited interest rates by investors, policymakers, and financial institutions. We show that the 10-year Treasury yield’s forward-looking volatility, a VIX-style measure that is a proxy for uncertainty about future interest rates, is a useful state variable capable of predicting the returns and volatility of crude oil prices over the near term. Using monthly data from 2003 to 2020, we document that higher implied volatility in the 10-year U.S. Treasury derivatives market predicts declining oil prices and higher forward-looking volatility in those prices. Our results are robust to different subsamples and various empirical designs.

Keywords