Understanding the effects of climate warming on streamflow and active groundwater storage in an alpine catchment: the upper Lhasa River

Abstract

Climate warming is changing streamflow regimes and groundwater storage in cold alpine regions. In this study, the Yangbajain headwater catchment in the Lhasa River basin is adopted as the study area to assess streamflow changes and active groundwater storage in response to climate warming. The results show that both annual streamflow and the mean air temperature increase significantly at respective rates of about 12.30 mm per decade and 0.28 ∘C per decade from 1979 to 2013 in the study area. The results of gray relational analysis indicate that the air temperature acts as a primary factor for the increased streamflow. Due to climate warming, the total glacier volume has retreated by over 25 % during the past 50 years, and the areal extent of permafrost has degraded by 15.3 % over the last 20 years. Parallel comparisons with other subbasins in the Lhasa River basin indirectly reveal that the increased streamflow at the Yangbajain Station is mainly fed by the accelerated glacier retreat. Using baseflow recession analysis, we also find that the estimated groundwater storage that is comparable with the GRACE data increases significantly at rates of about 19.32 mm per decade during the abovementioned period. That is to say, as permafrost thaws, more spaces have been made available to accommodate the increasing meltwater. Finally, a large water imbalance (of more than 5.79×107 m3 a−1) between the melt-derived runoff and the actual increase in runoff as well as the groundwater storage is also observed. The results from this study suggest that the impacts of glacial retreat and permafrost degradation show compound behaviors on the storage–discharge mechanism due to climate warming, and that this fundamentally affects the water supply and the mechanisms of streamflow generation and change.