Multi-decadal fluctuations in root zone storage capacity through vegetation adaptation to hydro-climatic variability have minor effects on the hydrological response in the Neckar River basin, Germany

Abstract

Climatic variability can considerably affect catchment-scale root zone storage capacity (Sumax), which is a critical factor regulating latent heat fluxes and thus the moisture exchange between land and atmosphere as well as the hydrological response and biogeochemical processes in terrestrial hydrological systems. However, direct quantification of changes in Sumax over long time periods and the mechanistic drivers thereof at the catchment scale are missing so far. As a consequence, it remains unclear how climatic variability, such as precipitation regime or canopy water demand, affects Sumax and how fluctuations in Sumax may influence the partitioning of water fluxes and therefore also affect the hydrological response at the catchment scale. Based on long-term daily hydrological records (1953–2022) in the upper Neckar River basin in Germany, we found that variability in hydro-climatic conditions, with an aridity index IA (i.e. EP/P) ranging between ∼ 0.9 and 1.1 over multiple consecutive 20-year periods, was accompanied by deviations ΔIE between −0.02 and 0.01 from the expected IE inferred from the long-term parametric Budyko curve. Similarly, fluctuations in Sumax, ranging between ∼ 95 and 115 mm or ∼ 20 %, were observed over the same time period. While uncorrelated with long-term mean precipitation and potential evaporation, it was shown that the magnitude of Sumax is controlled by the ratio of winter precipitation to summer precipitation (p < 0.05). In other words, Sumax in the study region does not depend on the overall wetness condition as for example expressed by IA, but rather on how water supply by precipitation is distributed over the year. However, fluctuations in Sumax were found to be uncorrelated with observed changes in ΔIE. Consequently, replacing a long-term average, time-invariant estimate of Sumax with a time-variable, dynamically changing formulation of that parameter in a hydrological model did not result in an improved representation of the long-term partitioning of water fluxes, as expressed by IE (and fluctuations ΔIE thereof), or in an improved representation of the shorter-term response dynamics. Overall, this study provides quantitative mechanistic evidence that Sumax changes significantly over multiple decades, reflecting vegetation adaptation to climatic variability. However, this temporal evolution of Sumax cannot explain long-term fluctuations in the partitioning of water (and thus latent heat) fluxes as expressed by deviations ΔIE from the parametric Budyko curve over multiple time periods with different climatic conditions. Similarly, it does not have any significant effects on shorter-term hydrological response characteristics of the upper Neckar catchment. This further suggests that accounting for the temporal evolution of Sumax with a time-variable formulation of that parameter in a hydrological model does not improve its ability to reproduce the hydrological response and may therefore be of minor importance for predicting the effects of a changing climate on the hydrological response in the study region over the next decades to come.