Economic and scale prediction of CO2 capture, utilization and storage technologies in China

Abstract

In response to the lack of global quantitative research on the potential and scale prediction of CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in China under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals, this study predicts the future economic costs of different links of CCUS technologies and the carbon capture needs of different industries in the scenario of fossil energy continuation. Based on the CO2 utilization and storage potential and spatial distribution in China, a cost-scale calculation model for different regions in China in 2060 is constructed to predict the whole-process economic cost and its corresponding scale potential of CCUS. The results show that a local + remote storage mode is preferred, together with a local utilization mode, to meet China's 27×108 t/a CO2 emission reduction demand under the scenario of fossil energy continuation. Specifically, about 5×108 t CO2 emission is reduced by capture utilization, and the whole-process cost is about −1400–200 RMB/t; about 22×108 t CO2 emission is reduced by capture storage, and the whole-process cost is about 200–450 RMB/t. According to the model results, it is recommended to develop the chemical utilization industry based on P2X (Power to X, where X is raw material) technology, construct the CCUS industrial cluster, and explore a multi-party win-win cooperation mode. A scheme of national trunk pipeline network connecting areas connecting intensive emission reduction demand areas and target storage areas is suggested. The emission reduction cost of thermal power based on CCUS is calculated to be 0.16 RMB/(kW·h).

Keywords

• CCUS
• whole-process modeling
• cost-scale calculation model
• transport pipeline
• thermal power emission reduction cost