Empirical Research on the Evolution of Relationship Between Energy and Economic Development in Guangdong

Abstract

[Introduction] Since the initiation of China's "reform and opening up" policy in 1978, Guangdong Province has achieved significant progress in economic growth and energy sector development. The provincial economy has shifted from rapid growth to emphasizing high-quality development. In the face of profound changes unseen in a century around the world and the imminent need to achieve "carbon peak and neutrality" goals, as well as industrial transformation and upgrading, the underlying relationship between energy consumption and economic development has gradually evolved in Guangdong. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of this new relationship serves as a theoretical grounding for the allotment of resources and utilization of opportunities arising under the "carbon peak and neutrality" goals, which is indispensable to facilitating high-quality and coordinated development in the energy sector and economy development. [Method] A quantitative analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in different development stages of Guangzhou since 1987 was presented, using representative energy and economic indicators and through the Granger causality test. [Result] The results reveal that the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Guangdong is not statistically consistent throughout the entire period from 1987 until now. However, economic development became a significant Granger cause for the surge in energy consumption after Guangdong entered its middle and later stage of industrialization in the mid-90s. [Conclusion] Guangdong has experienced a changing relationship between energy and economy in its different stages of development since 1987. The rapid growth of the manufacturing sector has stimulated the growth in energy consumption, exhibiting a distinct characteristic of demand-driven growth.

Keywords

• energy planning
• energy economy
• data science
• statistics
• granger causality analysis