Calibrating macroscale hydrological models in poorly gauged and heavily regulated basins

Abstract

The calibration of macroscale hydrological models is often challenged by the lack of adequate observations of river discharge and infrastructure operations. This modeling backdrop creates a number of potential pitfalls for model calibration, potentially affecting the reliability of hydrological models. Here, we introduce a novel numerical framework conceived to explore and overcome these pitfalls. Our framework consists of VIC-Res (a macroscale model setup for the Upper Mekong Basin), which is a novel variant of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model that includes a module for representing reservoir operations, and a hydraulic model used to infer discharge time series from satellite data. Using these two models and global sensitivity analysis, we show the existence of a strong relationship between the parameterization of the hydraulic model and the performance of VIC-Res – a codependence that emerges for a variety of performance metrics that we considered. Using the results provided by the sensitivity analysis, we propose an approach for breaking this codependence and informing the hydrological model calibration, which we finally carry out with the aid of a multi-objective optimization algorithm. The approach used in this study could integrate multiple remotely sensed observations and is transferable to other poorly gauged and heavily regulated river basins.