A statistical–dynamical approach for probabilistic prediction of sub-seasonal precipitation anomalies over 17 hydroclimatic regions in China

Abstract

In this study, we develop a spatial–temporal projection-based calibration, bridging, and merging (STP-CBaM) method to improve probabilistic sub-seasonal precipitation forecast skill over 17 hydroclimatic regions in China. The calibration model is established by post-processing ECMWF raw forecasts using the Bayesian joint probability (BJP) approach. The bridging models are built using large-scale atmospheric intraseasonal predictors, including zonal wind at 200 hPa (U200) and 850 hPa (U850); an outgoing longwave radiation anomaly (OLRA); and geopotential height at 200 hPa (H200), 500 hPa (H500), and 850 hPa (H850) defined by the STP method. The calibration model and the bridging models are then merged through the Bayesian modelling averaging (BMA) method. Our results indicate that the forecast skill of the calibration model is higher compared to bridging models when the lead time is within 5–10 d. The U200- and OLRA-based bridging models outperform the calibration model in certain months and certain regions. The BMA-merged forecasts take advantage of both calibration models and bridging models. Meanwhile, the BMA-merged forecasts also show high reliability at longer lead times. However, some improvements to reliability are still needed at shorter lead times. These findings demonstrate the great potential to combine dynamical models and statistical models in improving sub-seasonal precipitation forecasts.