Research on Comprehensive Evaluation of Electricity Market Risk Based on Subjective and Objective Weighting

Abstract

[Introduction] With the emphasis and promotion of the electricity market system construction by the government, the electricity market is constantly growing towards a deeper and more unified direction. In order to promote the electricity market construction, the influence factors of the electricity market risk and its evaluation remain to be studied further. [Method] Based on the consideration of the whole cycle of electricity market trading, this paper took pre-trade risk, during-trade risk, and post-trade riskas the entry points, integrated the existing risks in each stage of electricity market, and established the risk evaluation index system for electricity market. Based on the thought of subjective and objective weighting, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and entropy weight method were used to assign weights to the index system respectively, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) was adopted to evaluate the comprehensive risk level of the electricity market. [Result] The rationality, comprehensiveness and validity of the proposed model are verified through the analysis of the calculation examples of different electricity markets. [Conclusion] The model eatablished in this paper can conduct a comprehensive risk evaluation for the electricity market, and provide a theoretical reference for the construction of the risk system of the electricity market and its future development direction.

Keywords

• electricity market
• risk assessment
• analytic hierarchy process
• entropy weight method
• fuzzy comprehensive evaluation