Combinatorial machine learning approaches for high-rise building cost prediction and their interpretability analysis

Abstract

This study focuses on addressing housing gaps in populous southern countries by emphasizing the importance of accurate early cost estimation in construction projects. It compares individual cost prediction models (Decision Tree, BP Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine) with combined prediction models (BP-DT and BP-SVM) for high-rise building cost prediction. The study employs interpretative analysis methods such as the Shapley additive explanation method, partial dependence plots, and individual conditional expectation plots to explore feature interplay and improve model transparency. Results show that the BP-SVM combination algorithm significantly reduces Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to other models. Key factors influencing cost estimation include “Estimated project duration” and “Ground floor area”, while others like “Below-ground floors” have minimal impact. The study highlights the interaction of various feature groups on prediction outcomes. Through feature interaction analysis, it is found that the Estimated project duration and Building architecture can have some negative correlation interaction. Estimated project duration and Interior decoration may have to cancel effects Overall, it contributes to construction management by aiding investors in better-assessing project profitability, thereby enhancing investment decision efficiency and quality.

Keywords

• construction cost
• combinatorial algorithm
• shapely additive method
• partial dependency plot
• black box model