A production prediction method of single well in water flooding oilfield based on integrated temporal convolutional network model

Abstract

Since the oil production of single well in water flooding reservoir varies greatly and is hard to predict, an oil production prediction method of single well based on temporal convolutional network (TCN) is proposed and verified. This method is started from data processing, the correspondence between water injectors and oil producers is determined according to the influence radius of the water injectors, the influence degree of a water injector on an oil producer in the month concerned is added as a model feature, and a Random Forest (RF) model is built to fill the dynamic data of water flooding. The single well history is divided into 4 stages according to its water cut, that is, low water cut, middle water cut, high water cut and extra-high water cut stages. In each stage, a TCN based prediction model is established, hyperparameters of the model are optimized by the Sparrow Search Algorithm (SSA). Finally, the models of the 4 stages are integrated into one whole-life model of the well for production prediction. The application of this method in Daqing Oilfield, NE China shows that: (1) Compared with conventional data processing methods, the data obtained by this processing method are more close to the actual production, and the data set obtained is more authentic and complete. (2) The TCN model has higher prediction accuracy than other 11 models such as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). (3) Compared with the conventional full-life-cycle models, the model of integrated stages can significantly reduce the error of production prediction.

Keywords

• single well production prediction
• temporal convolutional network
• time series prediction
• water flooding reservoir