Anticipating return migration to Ukraine: participatory foresight with Ukrainians displaced to Spain

Abstract

In the context of the ongoing Russian invasion and the uncertainties surrounding the potential return migration of millions of displaced Ukrainians, this study explores the future of (return) migration through an innovative and inclusive participatory foresight approach, engaging 20 displaced Ukrainians residing in Valencia, Spain, from May to December 2023. The foresight process included workshops, discussions via online messaging groups, interviews, participatory observations, and culminated in an open art exhibition. Through this process, we conducted a collective horizon scanning, identifying weak signals and emerging trends, followed by an examination of critical uncertainties, which led to the development of four distinct scenarios: Exhaustion Return, Energetic Return, Virtual Return, and Disconnection. The insights derived from this foresight exercise hold practical relevance for both Ukrainian and EU migration policymakers, emphasizing the importance of lived experiences in shaping anticipatory migration policies. This study also offers theoretical contributions by applying participatory foresight to the field of return migration, challenging established knowledge paradigms, and fostering a more inclusive and nuanced understanding of migration dynamics and their broader implications.

Keywords

• displaced
• future scenarios
• horizon scanning
• migration
• participation