Analysis on Power Supply Structure Transformation Towards Carbon Neutrality in Guangdong

Abstract

[Introduction] In order to realize the goal of "dual-carbon", the green and low-carbon transformation of power supply side is the key to realize the green and low-carbon transformation of Guangdong, and at the same time, the construction of a diversified power supply support system with a high proportion of new energy is also the most important task for achieving a new type of power system in Guangdong. Therefore, it is of great significance to plan the carbon neutral power supply structure of Guangdong in advance. [Method] Based on the study of the prospective energy supply and demand pattern of Guangdong Province, this paper integrated the low-carbon transformation and energy security, considered the constraints from the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption, resource conditions, and the balance of power supply, and proposed a carbon-neutral power supply development idea for Guangdong, analyzed different transformation paths, and put forward relevant suggestions. [Result] The study shows that during the period of carbon neutrality, the total installed capacities of power supply in Guangdong Province is expected to reach about three times of the current installed capacities; the main body of power supply will be transformed from the current combination of "thermal power + nuclear power + external power supply" to "new energy + nuclear power + external power supply"; The proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity will reach 80%, of which the proportion of new energy resources in the province will reach 50%. [Conclusion] The prospect of power structure adjustment in Guangdong Province seems optimistic. However, this process still faces many challenges from policy, technology and market, etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the role change of thermal power in the power system, safeguard the key factors of non-fossil energy development, and emphasize the building of regulating capacity for new power system; in order to meet the demand for electricity consumption in Guangdong twice as much as the status quo during the period of carbon neutrality, it is even more important to pay special attention to technological innovation issues leading the clean and low-carbon transformation of power supply structures, and through scientific and technological innovation, to promote the exploration of new energy types and new energy technologies towards the development of greater energy density and more efficient energy conversion.

Keywords

• carbon neutral
• low carbon transformation
• resource constraints
• new energy development
• power supply preservation
• flexible regulation