Modeling of Bacillus cereus distribution in pasteurized milk at the time of consumption

Abstract

Modelling of Bacillus cereus distribution, using data from pasteurized milk produced in Slovakia, at the time of consumption was performed in this study. The Modular Process Risk Model (MPRM) methodology was applied to over all the consecutive steps in the food chain. The main factors involved in the risk of being exposed to unacceptable levels of B. cereus (model output) were the initial density of B. cereus after milk pasteurization, storage temperatures and times (model input). Monte Carlo simulations were used for probability calculation of B. cereus density. By applying the sensitivity analysis influence of the input factors and their threshold values on the final count of B. cereus were determined. The results of the general case exposure assessment indicated that almost 14 % of Tetra Brik cartons can contain > 104 cfu/ml of B. cereus at the temperature distribution taken into account and time of pasteurized milk consumption. doi:10.5219/264

Keywords

• Bacillus cereus
• predictive model
• exposure assessment
• Monte Carlo simulation